Football Tips Today Acca for Saturday 28/10/2017
Wolves v Chelsea: Pre-Match Analysis (17:30, 18/02/17, BT Sport 2):
Wolves reached this stage beating Liverpool at Anfield in the 3rd round after winning away to Stoke prior to that. Wolves have improved over the course of the season under Paul Lambert, Helder Costa’s loan move was made permanent in January for a club record fee of £13 million. Costa functions on the right and is a threat cutting onto his left-foot, he scored in the 3rd round against Stoke and provided 2 assists in the win over Liverpool. Winger Ben Marshall was bought in January from Blackburn but has been used at right-back since his arrival, the experienced Dave Edwards will provide willing run from midfield while George Saville could start against his former club, providing graft in Midfield. Wolves have lost each of their last 3 league games, failing to score in their last 2 home games.
Premier League leaders Chelsea have lost just 1 of their last 18 games in all competitions. Conte has made changes so far in the FA Cup, however with no game for 7 days it is possible he will be less radical in doing so. An interesting angle is that each of Chelsea’s 5 domestic cup games this season have had Over 2.5 goals. 4 of those games have also had Over 3.5 goals while 4 of those 5 have had Over 1.5 first half goals. Over 2.5 goals at 8/13 seems a short price, especially considering Wolves’ last 3 home matches have had Under 1.5 goals. Over 3.5 goals is 6/4 but again I’d like more of a return for that, Over 1.5 First Half goals is 11/8 and seems more of an appealing price given Chelsea tend to start fast and have taken a first half lead in 10 of their last 11 games in all competitions.
Willian offers good value in terms of anytime goalscorer, the Brazilian takes set-pieces and has scored in both of Chelsea’s previous FA Cup games this season, he is a generous 12/5 with some bookmakers, this is a big price when you consider he is as short as 5/4 with some. The best value bet in this one though is Chelsea/Chelsea in the Half-Time/Full-Time market which is 11/10 with Paddy Power. Regardless of Wolves’ approach, a much changed Chelsea still possesses superior attacking quality through the likes of Willian and Batshuayi and defensive stability with the likes of Zouma and Ake available. As has already been stated, Chelsea are fast starters under Conte taking a first half lead in 10 of their last 11 games while 4 of their 5 FA Cup have had Over 1.5 goals. For these reasons, Chelsea/Chelsea in the Half-Time/Full-Time market at 11/10 is the best bet here.
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