5 Value bets: Saturday 18th Feb 2017

Here @benlevene96 picks out 5 value outright win bets ahead of this weekend’s football:

Frankfurt to beat Ingolstadt @ 23/20:

Eintracht Frankfurt lie in 3^rd spot in the Bundesliga and now have to be deemed serious contenders for a Champions League spot. Niko Kovac’s team host Ingolstadt who are currently positioned in the relegation zone. Frankfurt are unbeaten at home this season and have won 4 of their last 5 at the Commerzbank Arena, keeping 3 consecutive clean sheets at home. This already draws appeal to the 23/20 offered by Betfair for a home win. The appeal of this price is further enhanced when you look at Ingolstadt. Ingolstadt have lost 4 of their last 5 league games and 3 of their last 4 away from home. It is worth noting that Ingolstadt were improved last time out, losing to Bayern Munich as a result of two stoppage time goals. However, Frankfurt’s recent home results suggest they are a solid tough to beat outfit who have the ability to grind out results in low scoring affairs. At 23/20 Frankfurt seem a good value bet.

Mansfield to beat Grimsby @ 11/8:

When Steve Evans was appointed as Mansfield manager I backed them at 15/2 for a Top 7 Finish. Fast forward 2 months and The Stags lie in 7^th spot. Evans has twice been promoted from League Two and gets his teams grinding out results as is evident with his current team. Mansfield are now 9 games unbeaten and have won 3 of their last 4 away games including each of their last 2. Grimsby are 4 league games without a win and have won just 2 of their last 10 at home. The fans have become frustrated with Manager Marcus Bignot and Grimsby have failed to cope with the loss of star striker Omar Bogle, scoring just 1 goal in their last 4 league games. Grimsby are in a bit of a rot of late and I struggle to see that changing against an in form Mansfield side. Mansfield are 11/8 to win with Betfair and that seems a good price to me.

Plymouth to beat Hartlepool @ 11/10:

Plymouth sit 2^nd in League Two and are aiming for automatic promotion after last seasons’ Play-Off final misery. Plymouth have won 3 of their last 5 in the league and 2 of their last 3 away from home. Dereck Adams’ side travel to an out of sorts Hartlepool. Hartlepool have failed to improve since sacking Craig Hignett and have lost 3 of their last 4, winning just 1 of their last 8. Plymouth can be inconsistent themselves but with calibre of player they possess in the likes of Graham Carey and Jake Jervis, the 11/10 offered for them to win this seems generous.

Sheffield Wednesday to beat Nottingham Forest @ 7/5:

Sheffield Wednesday under Carlos Carvalhal have progressed massively over the last year-and-a-half. The Owls lost in the play-off final last season and over the last few games seem to have really hit form. Wednesday started the season slowly and ground their way to play-off contention. They begin the weekend in 6^th spot and come into this game on the back of 3 wins. Wednesday have an abundance of attacking options with the likes of Jordan Rhodes, Sam Winnall, Steven Fletcher, Fernando Forestieri and Gary Hooper. The Owls also have quality in wide areas in Ross Wallace, Adam Reach and Callum McManaman. Forest have lost their last 2 league games and they have won their last 3 at home, although all those wins were against sides in abysmal form (Bristol City, Rotherham, Villa). Forest did strengthen late in the January window bringing in the likes of Ross McCormack and Zach Clough, however Sheffield Wednesday are a solid outfit in a good run of form and therefore 7/5 for a Wednesday win seems a big price.

Hamburg to beat Freiburg @ 11/10:

Markus Gisdol seems to have turned things around at Hamburg. They have won their last 3 league games, all to nil and have won each of their last 4 home matches (3 of those to nil). Hamburg posses a gifted squad however in recent seasons have been consistently in a battle for survival. Freiburg are a tricky side but have won just 1 of their last 4 away games. Hamburg are in a terrific run of form and so it is difficult to oppose them and ignore the 11/10 offered for a home win.

@benlevene96